Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 13 – Chicago Bears 17

(8:30) 8-T.Masthay punts 27 yards to CHI 35, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.56 EP
72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 62, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model