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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 3

Chicago Bears 14 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 9-R.Gould 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP