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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 44

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to GB 16, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.91 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.20 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP