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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 5

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.94 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 5, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model