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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) (No Huddle) 27-E.Lacy right end to CHI 48 for no gain (58-J.Anderson, 92-P.McPhee).

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.42 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model