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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 58

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to GB 12, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-11-J.Bellamy.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.24 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP