4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 3

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:25) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.37 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP