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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 25

Carolina Panthers 33 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-T.Crawford), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman, RECOVERED by DAL-50-S.Lee at DAL 20. 50-S.Lee to CAR 45 for 35 yards (92-D.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.09 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model