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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(7:53) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model