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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 25

Carolina Panthers 10 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(3:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.53 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model