Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 77

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

(9:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to CAR 27, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 29-D.Marlowe to CAR 27 for no gain (27-J.Wilcox).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.96 EP
72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model