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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 10 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(11:48) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 22 yards to DAL 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.54 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -2.06 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP