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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to BUF 30, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 35 for 5 yards (42-A.Sherman).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 25, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP