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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 19

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Buffalo Bills 22

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.09 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 19, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model