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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 20

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Buffalo Bills 22

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 5-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.10 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 20, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model