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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(:04) 5-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.38 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model