Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(1:27) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to KC 29, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.41 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model