Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(7:44) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 47 yards to BAL 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-K.Clay to BAL 30 for 15 yards (24-J.Bademosi; 30-I.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.62 EP
60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model