Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 27 – Baltimore Ravens 27

(1:06) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 48 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-K.Clay to BAL 38 for 15 yards (24-J.Bademosi).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.11 EP
75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -2.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model