Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Cleveland Browns 27

(1:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CLE 37, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.02 EP
56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model