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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 20 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(8:24) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 52 yards to BAL 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 81-K.Clay to BAL 37 for 10 yards (58-C.Kirksey). PENALTY on BAL-33-W.Hill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 36, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model