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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 20 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(2:20) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 39 yards to BAL 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.96 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model