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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 3

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.92 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 3, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.91 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model