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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.40 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP