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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 13

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(11:30) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.34 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 13, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model