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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 32

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 4-R.Succop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.21 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.82 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model