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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 19

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(2:21) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +2.21 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 19, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model