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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(8:14) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 52 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-C.Tinker. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 28 for 6 yards (16-D.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model