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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(3:49) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to JAX 32, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-R.Greene to TEN 5 for 63 yards (39-D.Stafford).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.91 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP