Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

(7:36) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to JAX 39, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.55 EP
74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 81, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model