Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 19-B.Anger punts 46 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-C.Tinker. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 16 for -1 yards (52-H.Pullard). PENALTY on TEN-89-P.Supernaw, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at TEN 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.28 EP
56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model