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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 41

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 19-B.Anger punts 35 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.13 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model