Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to JAX 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters. PENALTY on TEN-37-C.Riggs, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.77 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -3.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model