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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(5:44) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to BAL 40, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-31-M.Alexander.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.43 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model