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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 33

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.75 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model