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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:21) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to LA 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-W.Welker ran ob at LA 15 for 10 yards (54-Z.Orr).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.65 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model