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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(4:25) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to LA 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Austin. PENALTY on LA-11-T.Austin, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at LA 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.88 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 63, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP