Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(10:13) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 63 yards to BAL 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 81-K.Clay to BAL 12 for 7 yards (53-D.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.93 EP
60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model