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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 33

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk to LA 28 for 5 yards (55-J.Laurinaitis).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.64 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP