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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(4:04) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to LA 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Austin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-57-C.Mosley at LA 31. 57-C.Mosley to LA 31 for no gain (38-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP