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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(8:15) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to BAL 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-L.Webb. PENALTY on LA-53-D.Bates, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.80 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP