4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(10:24) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to LA 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Austin to LA 28 for 3 yards (50-A.McClellan). Penalty on BAL-28-B.Trawick, Ineligible Downfield Kick, declined. PENALTY on BAL-31-T.Brooks, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.48 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model