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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 22

Detroit Lions 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(:36) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.21 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model