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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 11

Detroit Lions 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.56 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +2.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model