Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 75

Detroit Lions 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(2:31) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to LV 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 89-A.Cooper to LV 27 for no gain (50-T.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model