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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 30

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Detroit Lions 9

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.22 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model