Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 73

Detroit Lions 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to LV 43, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-25-T.Riddick. PENALTY on DET-10-C.Fuller, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at LV 43.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.12 EP
71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model