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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 33

Detroit Lions 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(:07) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.86 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -0.26 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model