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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 7-M.King punts 32 yards to DET 10, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-42-L.Asante.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model