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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 47

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 7-M.King punts 32 yards to DET 15, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 16-L.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.82 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP